The industry’s average new-vehicle transaction price, while still historically high, was expected to hold flat in June, forecasters said. Pricing peaked at $47,362 in December, J.D. Power and GlobalData said.

Sending more vehicles to fulfill fleet demand might help automakers maintain higher retail prices at dealerships longer, said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power.

“In short, it is an ability to get back to producing at a higher level that is helping to drive this,” Jominy said of the auto market halfway through the year. “At a fundamental level, the industry has both ongoing demand, which we see month to month, and then we have the pent-up demand from the past three-plus years that we haven’t been able to meet.”

Close to half of that pent-up demand is fleet customers, Jominy said. J.D. Power estimated that fleet sales rose 54 percent in June, to 276,000 vehicles, and 58 percent in the second quarter, to 824,000. By comparison, retail sales grew 17 percent in June and 11 percent in the second quarter, which itself is “very strong,” he added.

Which automaker ultimately tops the U.S. sales charts in 2023 will depend on production and supply, Jominy said.

“Who is selling, who is doing better,” he said, “ultimately comes down to who has the most vehicles.”

Larry P. Vellequette contributed to this report.